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Behind the Stats
Listed under: Interviews
Published: Wednesday, July 02, 2008
When the Office for National Statistics reported sky-high sales in May, many disagreed. Richard Dodd, spokesperson for the British Retail Consortium, gives his take
The Cause
“Retail sales were particularly poor during March and April this year,” he explains. “However, at the start of May, the sun suddenly came out and many of the customers who hadn't been interested in buying summer items, such as food and drink, felt compelled to make the most of the warm weather and do some shopping. The boost in sales came as a result of the good weather and it certainly does not indicate any fundamental changes in how well-off customers are or how confident they feel about spending. Shoppers are still very short on spare cash due to rising costs.
The Facts
“The ONS figures are significantly higher than our figures and also those of many retailers we have spoken to. This is because their results only counted a proportion of the responses they had collected from retailers. In fact, the statistics they released were based on the 60% of responses they had received at that point in time. Of course, they will revise these figures later when they receive the rest of the data and the original statistics they published may well go down.
The Effects
“Over the next few months, it remains to be seen whether the boost in sales during May is sustainable. I think it highly unlikely that we will see such a significant growth again because the arrival of summer, and the customers' response to it, is ultimately a one-off effect for the year. Even if the good weather continues it will not give shoppers the same boost again because they are still short of cash. Sales in May were prompted by the fact that the weather marked the clear start of the summer, customers responded to that by buying things in reponse. However the buzz has now worn off, and what lies ahead has yet to be seen.”
“Retail sales were particularly poor during March and April this year,” he explains. “However, at the start of May, the sun suddenly came out and many of the customers who hadn't been interested in buying summer items, such as food and drink, felt compelled to make the most of the warm weather and do some shopping. The boost in sales came as a result of the good weather and it certainly does not indicate any fundamental changes in how well-off customers are or how confident they feel about spending. Shoppers are still very short on spare cash due to rising costs.
The Facts
“The ONS figures are significantly higher than our figures and also those of many retailers we have spoken to. This is because their results only counted a proportion of the responses they had collected from retailers. In fact, the statistics they released were based on the 60% of responses they had received at that point in time. Of course, they will revise these figures later when they receive the rest of the data and the original statistics they published may well go down.
The Effects
“Over the next few months, it remains to be seen whether the boost in sales during May is sustainable. I think it highly unlikely that we will see such a significant growth again because the arrival of summer, and the customers' response to it, is ultimately a one-off effect for the year. Even if the good weather continues it will not give shoppers the same boost again because they are still short of cash. Sales in May were prompted by the fact that the weather marked the clear start of the summer, customers responded to that by buying things in reponse. However the buzz has now worn off, and what lies ahead has yet to be seen.”
