RETAIL: April Outlook is Positive
Listed under: News
Published: Thursday, March 27, 2008
Forecasts of sales gloom have been countered by sales performing above predictions. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has reported that retail activity remained slow in March with high street stores reporting flat year-on-year sales. The latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey reveals that more than a third (36%) of retailers told the organisation their sales volumes in the first half of the month were higher than a year earlier, while a similar proportion (35%) said they were lower.
Despite this, the results were better than expectations. The body uses a balance measurement, which is the difference between the percentage of retailers reporting an increase and those reporting a decrease. March's figure was +1 compared to the expected -2 and February's -3. The three-month moving average, which smooths out blips and monthly volatility, continued its gradual fall from its peak of +36 last May to +1 this month.
“This month's survey has borne out retailers' expectations that the strong growth enjoyed in 2007 has come to an end,” says Ian McCafferty, CBI chief economic adviser. "The picture now is of subdued activity as consumers tighten their belts amid the general cooling of activity we are seeing across the whole economy.” But is the future really looking that bad, when predictions for April are upbeat with a forecast of further year-on-year growth? Retailers' expectations may be worse than actual results. Those surveyed described sales for the time of year as poor (29% compared with 15% saying they were good).
Brenda Kay, owner of Crafty Times, remains positive. “It's a bit different for me than for other shops – I'm at the seaside so I get the holiday trade – with the early Easter, business has increased slightly this month,” she says. “The winter has been quiet as usual but people are still coming on holiday and into the shop. I've had some regulars coming in, but I've also noticed a few new ones this week. Time will tell when we get the summer customers, but I wouldn't say it is any worse than last year.”
Despite this, the results were better than expectations. The body uses a balance measurement, which is the difference between the percentage of retailers reporting an increase and those reporting a decrease. March's figure was +1 compared to the expected -2 and February's -3. The three-month moving average, which smooths out blips and monthly volatility, continued its gradual fall from its peak of +36 last May to +1 this month.
“This month's survey has borne out retailers' expectations that the strong growth enjoyed in 2007 has come to an end,” says Ian McCafferty, CBI chief economic adviser. "The picture now is of subdued activity as consumers tighten their belts amid the general cooling of activity we are seeing across the whole economy.” But is the future really looking that bad, when predictions for April are upbeat with a forecast of further year-on-year growth? Retailers' expectations may be worse than actual results. Those surveyed described sales for the time of year as poor (29% compared with 15% saying they were good).
Brenda Kay, owner of Crafty Times, remains positive. “It's a bit different for me than for other shops – I'm at the seaside so I get the holiday trade – with the early Easter, business has increased slightly this month,” she says. “The winter has been quiet as usual but people are still coming on holiday and into the shop. I've had some regulars coming in, but I've also noticed a few new ones this week. Time will tell when we get the summer customers, but I wouldn't say it is any worse than last year.”
There are currently 0 comments - Have Your Say Today